Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 61772.547625 65357.234862 68945.539807 72804.193715 76833.407331 80913.784309 85355.523336
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 55896.637323 61358.456249 66983.035942 73199.241718 79867.791626 86797.883051 94535.237163
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 51508.902464 58218.301396 65283.790814 73260.674115 81997.499796 91257.141459 101794.112519
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 48310.715583 55961.002869 64169.227270 73601.158208 84108.901464 95424.537746 108499.988080
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 45527.815925 53897.902267 63027.636050 73681.578147 85727.196824 98878.335742 114275.110631
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 43796.938605 52856.021441 62881.646732 74739.826203 88319.739715 103322.478706 121085.150164
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 41598.065029 51133.512951 61832.977136 74650.429489 89506.430559 106101.243841 125954.508679
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 40374.668661 50454.029694 61904.064458 75776.653568 92027.073115 110356.306192 132484.811050
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 39064.492629 49592.062428 61692.599808 76511.308128 94044.480733 114001.182728 138299.914307
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 37478.683698 48322.023725 60929.906513 76532.130316 95172.278180 116576.006725 142850.145806
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 35946.746098 47047.418481 60098.765759 76412.591279 96084.286257 118861.760650 147039.116587
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 35151.991359 46632.704414 60266.179956 77460.971571 98366.387923 122751.795449 153124.518017
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 34249.010487 46060.169397 60227.981287 78258.215149 100360.667548 126332.797557 158901.420981
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 33201.392273 45266.514991 59885.143728 78656.175035 101854.992413 129313.821889 163976.245701
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 32057.752148 44306.997038 59297.564092 78717.026377 102910.446294 131750.795460 168394.225534
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 31127.080656 43583.517940 58973.008150 79076.739536 104312.710315 134597.397620 173310.487172
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 30125.623446 42731.463929 58453.189865 79161.724611 105351.389253 136987.419688 177669.345329
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29647.900056 42543.269694 58761.813023 80282.246571 107678.552841 140963.897571 183991.021690
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28663.931076 41652.635748 58138.289887 80187.585629 108457.037765 143016.960295 187942.424232
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 28283.681642 41551.018909 58523.618969 81379.938044 110862.990589 147098.288897 194426.982613
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27750.306210 41223.279491 58597.652159 82157.620894 112735.662063 150517.966150 200104.369433
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 26933.265676 40483.916556 58107.194822 82179.661326 113625.079914 152696.928096 204233.004624
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 26095.053039 39689.548539 57520.120249 82053.127092 114305.748296 154602.588719 208017.270428